Both Sony and MS need to aim advertising to the non gamer crowd. The crowd that brought Nintendo back to the spotlight in the eyes of Joe Six Pack. It's extremely hard to foresee if implementation of motion controls will be successful in the eyes of seasoned gamers, at least in their infant stages. TV ads, system bundles, but above all, they both need INTERESTING SOFTWARE to sell the idea.
Do you think an enforced mandate is the way to go? So from say Winter 2010 all new games must use the new controllers in some way?
Would that be the marker of investment that would say to the consumer - yes we are serious, yes this is the future of games on our console so get one now.
They will be slowly integrated into games, but the technology is still in its early stages, and it still needs a lot of polish. Traditional controls have over 20 years of evolution behind, and almost all developers have their minds firmly wrapped around them when crafting control schemes.
You've already seen motionplus used well in several games already though.
So do you think that Natal and the PS controller will only be used in a scant handful of useful ways? Because I was thinking mass adoption for the genres where we know it works, sports and FPS for a start.
MS hinted that all future 360s would be bundled with Natal, that's huge, but it does leave out like 30 million existing users. I wonder if they can get costs down enough to bundle in game with the new devices?
Well the Wii is by far in the best shape when it comes to getting WM+ in consumers hand
There are various reasons for that
- As mentioned before it is cheap enough to bundle with a game. So if want to be 100% sure people who play this game need to have it, you can
- Nintendo has the ability to pack-in Wii Sports Resort and WM+ with a Wii console for little extra cost.
- Wii Sport Resort will sell a gigaton, causing the WM+ to get in hands on millions consumer, the other have not shown a single piece of software yet.
- Not all games need WM+, but may be enhanced with them. You can play Tigerwoods and Grand Slam Tennis with and without WM+. You can for instance make a FPS that uses the WM+ to keep track of the Wiimote if it has left the sensor bar range. But it could still work without it just fine.
The others have bigger problems. The Sonywand required two wands and a camera. It is not an add-on but a complete new control scheme. I don't think you can just bundle it with many games. I don't think Sony will bundle it with their console and I do not see a Wii Sport for that thing. Natal has some of the same problems, but I think Microsoft will bundle it. Also there is no way in hell that you can use Natal for many games like you can use the WM+ and the Sonywand.
Next gen will be interesting, then we will probably see motion controls being standard for all 3!
At their infant stages, neither Natal nor the Sony wand are polished enough to be adopted by genres such as FPS or sports games, where input accuracy would negatively effect the competitive nature of them, especially on an online environment.
As for MS bundling Natal with a game, it'll depend on whether they develop a true killer app for the motion control hardware, such as Wiisports or WSR. Without it, nobody will buy it.
personally i think sony's controller has great potential as it has already been proven by the wii-mote w/ wmp combination. i can't say the same thing about natal. maybe i'm just devoid of imagination but the complete lack of a physical controller only limits the possibilities for me, it doesn't make them endless. having said that, as iga has said sony's motion controller will in all likelihood be expensive (even more expensive than the microsoft thing). the only way anybody will buy it, is if there are great games people want to play which work with it. but 3rd party developers are unlikely to make games using an expensive secondary control scheme exclusively before they have any idea regarding the attach-ratio it has, unless sony pays them or has their 1st party studios make the games. so i think price and developer hesitation will be their bigger obstacles because in all likelihood they have a good product which has a lot of potential
now microsoft, as everybody said will be including natal with all their future consoles (once it's ready) which is very good for them. their problems are more of the "what does anybody want to do with this thing" category. personally i can't see it being used for anything other than novelty games.
as for nintendo, wmp being a relatively inexpensive add-on helps them. they have had to sell more expensive things than the wmp, namely the balance board, and one killer app proved enough for that. bundling the wmp with good games helps. tiger woods 10 and EA tennis bundles both sold relatively well (not sure about virtua tennis bundle) and now most importantly sports resort is not only making very good numbers, but it's also selling extra wmps. it certainly wouldn't hurt them to bundle resort and wmp in the box in the not so distant future (i think they should have a classic controller in the box as well).
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Listen to Wu-Tang and watch Kung-Fu
Frankly I don't see Natal or the PS3 wand being that successful no matter how they get marketed. They'll sell respectable amounts, but in the end I think they'll be lucky if 10% of the userbase gets the equipment. There's just too many issues, but ultimately it all comes back to one thing. Bad timing.
Launching a new periphreal early in a console's lifespan is risky enough, but during year 4 and 5 (assuming a 2010 release)??? By that time you've got a very mature game library out there, and there's no shortage of good games out there that play just fine without buying an extra controller.
Nintendo got away with the Balance board partially because it was introduced in the console's second year. Whether or not the support came through, it seemed like a safe bet that there would be many years of games for it. It didn't look like a huge risk to throw down $90 for the bundle. That perception doesn't exist with the 360 and PS3, despite all the talk about if a standard next gen of consoles will happen or not.
Of course Wii Fit was the main reason the balance board sold, but that audience, no matter how hard Sony and MS tries to appeal to them, will not move over to a new console. Most of that audience doesn't need or want a second console. You can put the greatest fitness and realistic bowling game on the PS3 and 360 and none of Nintendo's new found audience will buy it (unless they accidentally buy the game thinking it'll work in the Wii). The Casual ship has already sailed into Nintendo's Wide Blue Ocean.
SteelAttack said:How many games again? Because off the top of my head I can only recall the golf one, the tennis one, WSR and Red Steel 2 (which is still unreleased).
The games released are Tigerwoods, Grand Slam Tennis, Virtua Tennis and Wii Sports Resort. Announced Red Steel 2, a hockey game, the game with Pele.
Almost certain: the Grinder, the new Zelda.
SteelAttack said:But even if they are more, games where you can say the inclusion of motion controls truly benefit them are far, far from the majority.
Yeah, but to be honest most of the shovelware would be shitty with a normal controller too. But there are genres that work better with the Wiimote. But the other important thing is, that we got rid of the one controller for all concept. The Wii has plenty of games that let you choose various controller schemes. Like Classic Controller, Gamebube Controller, Wiimote, and Wiimote and nunchuck. This is a good thing.
SteelAttack said:
At their infant stages, neither Natal nor the Sony wand are polished enough to be adopted by genres such as FPS or sports games, where input accuracy would negatively effect the competitive nature of them, especially on an online environment.
Why? The conduit works just fine online with pointer controls. ISS Wii has a smooth online experience.
SteelAttack said:
As for MS bundling Natal with a game, it'll depend on whether they develop a true killer app for the motion control hardware, such as Wiisports or WSR. Without it, nobody will buy it.
Not necessary, the balance board is not widely used either, despite their being 15 million + install base
Iga_Bobovic said:Yeah, but to be honest most of the shovelware would be shitty with a normal controller too. But there are genres that work better with the Wiimote. But the other important thing is, that we got rid of the one controller for all concept. The Wii has plenty of games that let you choose various controller schemes. Like Classic Controller, Gamebube Controller, Wiimote, and Wiimote and nunchuck. This is a good thing.
True, but what I meant is that applying motion controls in any given game's control scheme takes a lot of thinking outside the box from the dev team to be a welcome addition. So far, only a selelected number of devs have accomplished that past beyond the "gimmick" stage.
Why? The conduit works just fine online with pointer controls. ISS Wii has a smooth online experience.
You're mixing up the Wiimote with Natal and the PS3 wand's technologies. Neither Natal nor the PS3 wand involve IR pointing, and integrating their interface within an FPS to replace traditional controls strikes me as clumsy, at least in this early stages. As for those flawless online experiences, I have yet to experience them so I'll take your word for granted, provided you have played them extensively.
Not necessary, the balance board is not widely used either, despite their being 15 million + install base
WiiFit is the balance board's killer app. What I meant is that MS needs something like WiiFit to bundle with Natal in order to make the average consumer think "hey, that's neat, I'll pick this thing up".
SteelAttack said:Iga_Bobovic said:Yeah, but to be honest most of the shovelware would be shitty with a normal controller too. But there are genres that work better with the Wiimote. But the other important thing is, that we got rid of the one controller for all concept. The Wii has plenty of games that let you choose various controller schemes. Like Classic Controller, Gamebube Controller, Wiimote, and Wiimote and nunchuck. This is a good thing.
True, but what I meant is that applying motion controls in any given game's control scheme takes a lot of thinking outside the box from the dev team to be a welcome addition. So far, only a selelected number of devs have accomplished that past beyond the "gimmick" stage.
You suck at quoting! This is how you do it
Fair enough, however in first person shooters we are getting a standard. People copied Prime 3, then Medal of Honour 2 and now Conduit. So there is a framework there. It's new so you will always have the discovery stage. Again true about developers.
SteelAttack said:Iga_Bobovic said:Why? The conduit works just fine online with pointer controls. ISS Wii has a smooth online experience.
You're mixing up the Wiimote with Natal and the PS3 wand's technologies. Neither Natal nor the PS3 wand involve IR pointing, and integrating their interface within an FPS to replace traditional controls strikes me as clumsy, at least in this early stages. As for those flawless online experiences, I have yet to experience them so I'll take your word for granted, provided you have played them extensively.
I was thinking that you were mixing things up also.
Well, the IR pointing works as follows. You have an infrared camera and the sensor bar has infra red LEDs. The camera sees the leds and calculates the position of the Wiimote with respect to the sensor bar. The Sonywand has a camera stationary and has LEDs on the Wand. So it could work the same way but reversed.
And about the flawless online experience. Never said they were flawless, but that they worked. According to people who have played it. I will never buy Conduit, I will buy ISS Wii once. Not sure when though.
SteelAttack said:Not necessary, the balance board is not widely used either, despite their being 15 million + install base
WiiFit is the balance board's killer app. What I meant is that MS needs something like WiiFit to bundle with Natal in order to make the average consumer think "hey, that's neat, I'll pick this thing up".
I know what you are saying, but getting Natal to consumers is one thing. Getting third party developers to develop for it, is something else all together.
Iga_Bobovic said:I know what you are saying, but getting Natal to consumers is one thing. Getting third party developers to develop for it, is something else all together.
They need to get their foor in the proverbial door first. No third party will risk developing for a platform that demands a lot of money if the install base isn't there. So they need to sell the peripheral first.
SteelAttack said:Iga_Bobovic said:I know what you are saying, but getting Natal to consumers is one thing. Getting third party developers to develop for it, is something else all together.
They need to get their foor in the proverbial door first. No third party will risk developing for a platform that demands a lot of money if the install base isn't there. So they need to sell the peripheral first.
I just figured out how they can get an attach rate near 100%
First all SKU's should have Natal included, this one is easy enough
Second, when repairing a 360 because it PROD'd send it back to the customer with Natal included.
And Voila, 100% attach rate in four months.
Iga_Bobovic said:SteelAttack said:Iga_Bobovic said:I know what you are saying, but getting Natal to consumers is one thing. Getting third party developers to develop for it, is something else all together.
They need to get their foor in the proverbial door first. No third party will risk developing for a platform that demands a lot of money if the install base isn't there. So they need to sell the peripheral first.
I just figured out how they can get an attach rate near 100%
First all SKU's should have Natal included, this one is easy enough
Second, when repairing a 360 because it PROD'd send it back to the customer with Natal included.
And Voila, 100% attach rate in four months.
Maybe less.
SteelAttack said:How many games again? Because off the top of my head I can only recall the golf one, the tennis one, WSR and Red Steel 2 (which is still unreleased). But even if they are more, games where you can say the inclusion of motion controls truly benefit them are far, far from the majority.
Yeah, I mean it's basically launched with 4 very high quality games (which is beyond reasonable expectations) and each one has used the controls to great effect. The other unreleased game is doing the same and will be of a similar quality. So I guess what I'm saying is that its not necessarily going to be like the standard wiimote where there are only a handful of games vs the massive ratio of games that dont use it to great effect.
SteelAttack said:
At their infant stages, neither Natal nor the Sony wand are polished enough to be adopted by genres such as FPS or sports games, where input accuracy would negatively effect the competitive nature of them, especially on an online environment.
As for MS bundling Natal with a game, it'll depend on whether they develop a true killer app for the motion control hardware, such as Wiisports or WSR. Without it, nobody will buy it.
From what I've seen and read, it sounds like Natal and the sony wand will be more accurate than the WMP so what exactly do you mean by not polished enough? I assume that EA will take what they've learned from Wii sports games development and apply it to other platforms.
Is there any info on the actual cost of Natal to make or to sell? That will be interesting, you see the public buying Guitar Hero bundles with massive controllers at high prices. Will Milo and Kate be the killer app?
Iga_Bobovic said:SteelAttack said:I just figured out how they can get an attach rate near 100%
First all SKU's should have Natal included, this one is easy enough
Second, when repairing a 360 because it PROD'd send it back to the customer with Natal included.
And Voila, 100% attach rate in four months.
LMAO! 
They would never give away that freebie. They wont even give me a free hard drive or free game when my machine breaks.
So let me ask you guys this question.
What existing franchises using Natal/WMP/Sony wand would be considered as killer apps to increase adoption rates? Nintendo has already said Zelda, is Halo Reach going to use Natal? Killzone 3?
Gamingeek asked:Motion controller adoption: How should MS/Sony & Nintendo introduce them?
Nintendo has done a great job of introducing MotionPlus, and having played with it for several weeks now, I'm convinced that it's the best way to go with motion controls. Nintendo really needs to bundle it with the Wii console, though.
Neither Microsoft's Natal or Sony's Wand appeal to me. Sony's has more potential, but Microsoft's "controller-less gaming" idea can go to hell. The only thing they could do to introduce them is include them with the console, and create a few killer apps too.
Iga_Bobovic said:SteelAttack said:Iga_Bobovic said:I know what you are saying, but getting Natal to consumers is one thing. Getting third party developers to develop for it, is something else all together.
They need to get their foor in the proverbial door first. No third party will risk developing for a platform that demands a lot of money if the install base isn't there. So they need to sell the peripheral first.
I just figured out how they can get an attach rate near 100%
First all SKU's should have Natal included, this one is easy enough
Second, when repairing a 360 because it PROD'd send it back to the customer with Natal included.
And Voila, 100% attach rate in four months.
Interesting, we learned today that Sports resort has sold 3 million worldwide and seperately motionplus has sold almost a million by itself.
Pretty good install base already.
http://www.1up.com/do/feature?pager.offset=2&cId=3175764
1UP: Do you think the generally higher cost of producing art for 360 and PS3 motion-controlled games will limit how risky developers can be when experimenting with new concepts for them?
EN: Unfortunately yes, it will. Publishers are going to be cautious and thereby making developers more cautious. This simply means that developers are going to have to be creative in where they spend their resources. This is the never-ending battle of manpower versus time that all developers deal with on every project.
MB: I think it will. There's also the cost of higher fidelity audio and complex game experiences that add to the development cost, and the market for these games will naturally be smaller at the start anyway because not every customer will have one. I expect then that a lot of the initial motion controlled games will be smaller PSN or XBLA titles that have a simpler graphics interface, combined with a few larger, higher quality titles developed by the platform holders to support the market.
MK: The development costs of developing on 360 and PS3 are very high...however, I think that because the market for the next-generation consoles is really taking shape, I don't think it's going to limit the amount of risk much. Having said that, in that marketplace, a game will really have to stand out and have really unique features in order to stand out. Otherwise it'll get lost in the crowd, so I think that's one thing where companies are really going to have to concentrate on -- how they will make their motion-equipped game stand out in the marketplace.
JT: That's hard to predict right now. My guess -- and I'll probably end up being dead wrong -- is that there will probably be more experimentation in the downloadable sector at first. Not that higher-end games can't be experimental; it's just that the dev times are shorter for downloadables, so you'll probably see all kinds of stuff coming in smaller packages sooner. Eventually larger games will come out, but that usually happens once developers get a real grasp of the advantages of each console. Like anything that has to do with technology, stuff isn't getting any cheaper. Even with outsourcing, the costs have pretty much stayed the same if not gotten more expensive because people keep wanting more.
1UP: Do you think we'll see a lot of traditional games with bonus motion features layered on for Natal or Sony's device, or we'll mostly see games made specifically for these interfaces?
EN: You are going to get both. Initially, the big three are going to support their technology with games that are built specifically for it. Most publishers, however, are going to want the quick and dirty add-on, as this is the most cost-effective way to support the new technology. Once the technology has undergone some real-world testing, I think you will see more publishers looking to exploit the technology fully in their games.
MB: Developing traditional games with bonus features is an excellent way of hooking users into buying of these peripherals. It's very low risk too, so I'm sure we'll see a lot of it. I imagine we'll also see a lot of games developed by the platform holders, nagging us that "if you had a Natal box, you could now put your face on this character" if we don't own one of these peripherals. [Smiles]
JT: Yeah, what will most likely happen is that a lot of games will jump on the bandwagon late and try to slap something in at first. Then after a cycle or two they'll be smarter about how to make it more integrated to the game for that system. It really comes down to what the game is about. I personally don't think any of the above systems would wipe out other types of controllers.
After Digital Foundry said that Natal couldn't really be used in traditional games, FPS in particular I made the assertion that the PS3 would become the best system for the genre given the combination of IR and graphics.
I was then reminded by Iga that developers might not integrate functionality as getting Sonys motion controller into peoples hands requires a camera and the controllers on top, two per person.
With Natal its just the sensor and with motion plus the add-on which has proved to be cheap enough to package in with multiple games so far.
It was at this point that I realised the challenge of adoption rates, I realised that despite looking forward to motionplus, despite its availibility with a good number of great games, I still hadn't bothered with it and didn't intend to for a good while yet.
I realised that even with around 20 million balance boards out there, there are still only a smattering of compatible games.
So how do you think the 3 big companies:
a) Should promote adoption of these devices
b) Actually WILL promote adoption
And how do you think gamers will react? Do you believe the controllers will become ubiquitous?
Do you intend on getting them? Is so when and why and at what price point?