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Tue, 24 Jul 2012 18:57:11
+1

This is a wild and unpredictable hobby we have all chosen. It's easy to know its history due to its relatively short time its been in the mainstream, but, on the flip side, there are paid "experts" who couldn't make a prediction about its future if it was delivered to them in their very own Ferrari. Let this topic be about our OPINIONS as random and crazy or as well-thought-out and researched as they may be! I'll start:

_______________________

**The reason the next generation of consoles is taking so long is neither Microsoft nor Sony knows what they need to focus on. Online multiplayer? Digital downloads? Cross play on tablets or smart-phones or portable systems? Motion control? More people are playing games than ever before, so there's definitely still money to be made, but who do you cater to first? They have no clue. It is my humblest of opinions that one of the two may bow out of the next generation and become a publisher only!

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Tue, 24 Jul 2012 19:10:31
+1

Not sure about Sony or Microsoft bowing out.  I think they've both invested/thrown in way too much till now to do that.  It's like a hand of poker which has gone on too long for them to just count their losses and bow out.  For as long as they are making enough profit from other branches of their operations, I think they will keep trying to make videogames profitable for them.  

I am in complete agreement with you that they have no clue what or even whom to focus on.  That may be why they're sitting it out while Nintendo play their next card.  Who knows?

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Tue, 24 Jul 2012 20:02:57
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I don't think anyone's going to bow out of next gen, maybe in the following gen but everyone likely has most of their plans for next gen already set.

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Tue, 24 Jul 2012 20:34:56
+1
I'm going to go into this further on the next podcast, but I believe nobody knows how to design games anymore.  And I mean design.  The actual science of making the game intuitive and leading the player to fun is completely lost.  Basic, fundamental errors are rampant.  This doesn't disregard the possibility or existence of very fun games, moreso that it's the core concept succeeding enough to overlook the flaws that shouldn't exist.
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Tue, 24 Jul 2012 21:33:40
+1
Good topic. I am extremely curious about Yoda's topic as I have always loved examining game design. As for next gen what Leo brought up is a major point. I believe the other big issue is that they re terrified at games costing to much to make and them not knowing where the best avenue to get revenue is. Will it be retail like always, dlc, all digital, subscription, etc.

Next gen willbe the most influential since the 32bit days. We are heading into unknown territory.
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Tue, 24 Jul 2012 21:59:08
+1

I know the purpose fo the thread is to propose our own theories but I want to address the one Leo raised.

I agree that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are all flummoxed as to what to do.  You omited Nintendo, but if you look at the 3DS, 3DS Circle Pad Pro and 3DS is is clear that Nintendo also doesn't know their ass from their elbow at this point (vis a vis what the market wants).  Sony has their Move, Wonderbooks and Vita,  Microsoft has Kinect and seemingly no interest in building up in-house software development.

However, their collective lack of direction is not the cause for the long console cycle. First, it's the economy.  Before the GFC there was much talk about this generation being the shortest console cycle mostyly driven by Microsoft looking to iterate faster, buoyed by the success of their early launch of the 360.  Then we went into unprecedented waves of economic recession.

Another reason it was prolonged is developer pressure. No need to belabor that point.

Most importantly though, for much of this generation there has been detente and a loose agreement to multilateraly dis-arm. What prompts new consoles? New consoles.  As Iwata said in 2007;



Iwata further explains that fresh hardware is often the result of the company needing a new weapon in the fight against other consoles. With the Wii, however, he feels that the company won't be needing any new weapons for quite some time, stating "But today's situation is such that we are not desperate for any new weapons at all."

http://www.joystiq.com/2007/11/06/nintendo-rethinks-console-life-cycle/

After Sony invested so much in R&D on the PS3 (which brought on a ridiculously high price point) they needed the generation to last as long as possible.  They had the highest mountain to climb back down.  Microsoft was wanting a faster cycle to once again outmove Sony but after the GFC hit, and $1.5 billion in losses due to RROD they had the surprise success of Kinect they also somehow found themselves #1 in North America.  Their reason to move evaporated.

Also, despite the Wii being the best selling console the HD manufacturers were insulated from their success because Nintendo turned away the core audience by making a non-HD console.  So they didn't have to compete with Nintendo.

Ninendo did not have to act because their were #1 and had the rivers of gold that the DS produced. It is conceivable they could have not launched the 3DS and kept with the DS until after the next home console, but that is not how "the bridge" has worked in the past, so they stuck with the plan.

The short of it is, I dont think it is for lack of imagination or direciton that the next console cycle has not hit.

Edited: Tue, 24 Jul 2012 22:00:50


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Tue, 24 Jul 2012 22:03:39
+1

Also, I wanted to tweak you and make you feel like you were at gamespot so here you go:

ur topic says IMHO. lol. ur HO!


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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 01:43:14
+1

**The 3DS could be the Nintendo handheld that takes the "shortest life-cycle" record. I think it is going to go down in history as a "failed" system. Not as bad as the Virtual Boy, but Nintendo's history with 3D has not been, nor will it ever be, a good one. I think you are going to see a NON-3D, Multi-Touch, Gyroscopic, Retinal Display, Possibly Digital Download only, TABLET from them in a year and a half's time, IF they make another portable system AT ALL! The writing is on the wall already. The games that were announced day one LAST YEAR (Animal Crossing, Paper Mario, Luigi's Mansion) are STILL not out, 3rd party is paltry at best and the Virtual Console & e-shop just don't seem to be going anywhere. Iwata has already said they are downplaying 3D and Miyamoto has said the next system is being designed, as well. I don't think this thing is even going to make 5 years. I take it with me every where, but even I have to admit... not looking too good!

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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 01:54:36
+1
aspro said:

ur topic says IMHO. lol. ur HO!

U NO IM HO!

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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 02:05:16

The economy may be stopping some developers from throwing a lot of cash into game and console development --BUT-- I don't think that's the reason for the stall. Even throughout the worst financial times, Apple is still making a SHIT-LOAD of money... Look when they released the iPad, for Pete's sake...! Portable and Pricey electronic's ARE SELLING! I think "if you build it, they will come" but no one is making a move to do so yet!

Speaking of Apple, who knows, maybe you'll see an exclusive deal for Nintendo Software on Apple portable devices and we won't even SEE portables from them after the 3DS!

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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 02:35:39
Yodariquo said:
I'm going to go into this further on the next podcast, but I believe nobody knows how to design games anymore.  And I mean design.  The actual science of making the game intuitive and leading the player to fun is completely lost.  Basic, fundamental errors are rampant.  This doesn't disregard the possibility or existence of very fun games, moreso that it's the core concept succeeding enough to overlook the flaws that shouldn't exist.




+9,001.

This can also be applied to cinema, and a great many things at the moment, though. It's not unique to games. Perhaps we've just become old men?

Edited: Wed, 25 Jul 2012 02:36:33

    A father's no shield
for his child.
We are like a lot of wild
spiders crying together,
but without tears.

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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 09:15:31
Yodariquo said:
I'm going to go into this further on the next podcast, but I believe nobody knows how to design games anymore.  And I mean design.  The actual science of making the game intuitive and leading the player to fun is completely lost.  Basic, fundamental errors are rampant.  This doesn't disregard the possibility or existence of very fun games, moreso that it's the core concept succeeding enough to overlook the flaws that shouldn't exist.



Oh I disagree. I think there are plenty of extremely well designed games.  Games that if you were to strip off the pretty graphics and characters/ story they would still be successful gameplay experiences.


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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 09:21:08
aspro said:




Oh I disagree. I think there are plenty of extremely well designed games.  Games that if you were to strip off the pretty graphics and characters/ story they would still be successful gameplay experiences.



You need to come on as a special guest for that section.

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We are like a lot of wild
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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 09:46:54

You can play the role of me, just read what I wrote up there. ^ and then read all the games I've beaten this year as evidence. But do it in Iga's accent, it's more convincing.

Or not, I can just imagine it and it's just as entertaining.  Maybe I'll do it next time I am on, I'll impersonate you, impersonating me, impersonating Iga.

Edited: Wed, 25 Jul 2012 09:48:47


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Wed, 25 Jul 2012 10:03:22
aspro said:

You can play the role of me, just read what I wrote up there. ^ and then read all the games I've beaten this year as evidence. But do it in Iga's accent, it's more convincing.

Or not, I can just imagine it and it's just as entertaining.  Maybe I'll do it next time I am on, I'll impersonate you, impersonating me, impersonating Iga.



I'll use Bioshock as the prime example then.

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Thu, 26 Jul 2012 10:37:05
phantom_leo said:

The economy may be stopping some developers from throwing a lot of cash into game and console development --BUT-- I don't think that's the reason for the stall. Even throughout the worst financial times, Apple is still making a SHIT-LOAD of money... Look when they released the iPad, for Pete's sake...! Portable and Pricey electronic's ARE SELLING! I think "if you build it, they will come" but no one is making a move to do so yet!

Speaking of Apple, who knows, maybe you'll see an exclusive deal for Nintendo Software on Apple portable devices and we won't even SEE portables from them after the 3DS!



Aplpe is Apple. It's a cult, much like Nintendo. They both defy all natural trends.


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Thu, 26 Jul 2012 10:41:05

Okay, here is my theory.

There are two ways a unified convention for console software will happen;

1. Software costs too much to produce,

2. The gaming industry (sans PC) completely collapses.

Under this circumstance I see consoles basically becoming fixed standard PCs, which, in my opinion, turns the power back to the developer (since any company could go out and make a console that complied to the standard).  All of this sets aside Nintendo into their own category of course.

This may be the best outcome for the current console malaise, a ground zero strategy.


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Sun, 29 Jul 2012 20:01:07

**The Wii U is not going to go over well with gamers, Nintendo fans and the hard-core. It'll be snatched up by Soccer-moms as Christmas Gifts for their kids who don't know any better. It will sell well, but won't do nearly as well as the DS did, or the Wii. I think gamers over the age of 25 are getting tired of Nintendo's gimmicks and are going to look elsewhere for their gaming fix. I think developers are seeing their gimmicks as being hard to work with and are NOT going to want to spend time and money on fully developing/using the controller. Miyamoto was the man with ALL the ideas and now that he is looking to retire, Nintendo doesn't have a clear direction on where to go with the technology and pretty much everything you will see put out by them will be cut and paste retreads of their previous successes. Miyamoto's ideas drove each and every system design and launch since the NES, NOT so with the Wii U... The launch line-up will be SUPER-Lacklaster due to Past-Gen ports and not enough first party offerings. It will make you WISH it was as exciting as the 3DS' launch!



Edited: Sun, 29 Jul 2012 20:12:06
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Sun, 29 Jul 2012 20:10:34

I have owned each and every Nintendo system at launch. At this moment, there's nothing screaming to me "YOU NEED A Wii U ! ! !"

____________

I don't care so much for shooters anymore so ZombiU is meh.

I already finished Mass Effect 3.

Don't want or need Wii Fit U.

I have played New Super Mario Bros. twice already.

I will have played, finished and traded back Darksiders 2 before the Wii U is even given a release date.

I haven't even played the LAST 2 Assassin's Creed games yet.

No one cares about Ninja Gaiden anymore.

Tekken? Whatever.

Don't like Tom Clancy games... See my previous attitude towards shooters.

Pikmin 1 HD... Sorry, not enough.

Batman: Armored Edition? Anyone who wanted to play that game has played it already.

____________

Where's my motivation Nintendo? Dragon's Quest 10 is looking pretty good, but that won't be out 'til September of 2013, probably. e-Shop and Virtual Console? Got those already! This next generation is looking pretty bleak if you ask me!



Edited: Sun, 29 Jul 2012 20:19:10
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Sun, 29 Jul 2012 20:20:55
The only reason I'm getting a WiiU at launch is the same reason I've had for getting any Nintendo product since the N64 and that's mainly for the Nintendo games. I am very much looking forward to the Platinum game, P-100 or whatever though. I also just want to play around with the new system as well as I like the idea of a tablet controller. I'm not all that hyped about Zombie U and all the other multiplatform games that are coming out for the system I've either already played them or I'd rather play them on the 360 or PS3.

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