Forum > Gaming Discussion > The EPIC November NPD thread. NPD is interesting again!!
The EPIC November NPD thread. NPD is interesting again!!
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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 05:13:54
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Finally a new generation, finally numbers that mean something. Here we go!!!!!

From gaf:

Overall:

Overall retail sales were up by 7% year over year.



Hardware sales were up by 58% year over year.



Software was down by 24% year over year.



Best November ever for hardware in the US due to the PS4/XB1 launches and a 3DS upturn.



Software:



Notes:
-PS4 sold more next-gen software than other next-gen platforms.
-PS4 attach rate is higher than PS3 or PS2.

Nintendo Sales:
-Pokemon X and Y each sold over 225,000 digital + retail. (I think this mean they did over 450K total).


-Zelda 3DS: 280K (or 405K including bundles) combined digital and physical.


-Super Mario 3D World: 215,000 combined digital and physical.


-There's a bunch of percentage increases for legacy software, but we don't have numbers for those.


Hardware:

PlayStation 4: 1.10 MillionTop selling platform of the month.
Xbox One: 909,132 (Fastest selling: 101,000 per day) [Second best selling platform of the month.]
3DS Estimate: 770K [November 2012 was 540K, November 2011 was 795K]
Xbox 360: 647K (-48.7%)
Wii U: 220K

Notes:
-3DS YTD sales are up 15% over last year.

Here is how the Dreamcast performed historically since I'm sure people will ask for Wii U and Vita:

Originally Posted by Aquamarine

245K (Dreamcast, November 1999)


192K (Dreamcast, November 2000)


259K (Dreamcast, November 2001)

Then we have these numbers:

Compilation:

  • The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds - 11% digital, excluding bundles
  • PSV Walking Dead bundle - 29.6% of sales, ~21.5K
  • Gold Zelda 3DS, Blue 2DS and Red 2DS all above 100K
  • Mario Party: Island Tour < 60K
  • Angry Birds: Star Wars - 2.7K

75K > PSV > 70K

PSV memory card LTDs:

  • 8GB - 360K
  • 16GB - 172K
  • 32GB - 167K

XB1 Software > 100K

  1. Call of Duty: Ghosts
  2. Battlefield 4
  3. Dead Rising 3 (>220K, 215K>WinkWink
  4. Forza Motorsport 5 (<= 200K)
  5. Ryse (>185K)
  6. Assassin's Creed IV
  7. Madden NFL 25
  8. NBA 2K14

The Fighter Within < 4K

PS4 Software > 100K

  1. Call of Duty: Ghosts
  2. Battlefield 4
  3. Assassin's Creed IV
  4. Killzone: Shadow Fall (<=270K)
  5. NBA 2K14
  6. Madden NFL 25
  7. Need for Speed
  8. FIFA 14

100K > Knack > 90K

Call of Duty: Ghosts platform split:
XBO - 6.42%
PS4 - 7.39%
360 - 55.45%
PS3 - 30.42%
Wii U - 0.33%







Battlefield 4, next gen split:
XBO - 45.65%
PS4 - 54.35%

25K > Mario and Sonic at the Sochi Winter Olympic Games > 20K

Edited: Fri, 13 Dec 2013 05:15:14
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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 05:24:24
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So lets start with Sony who is going to win this upcoming gen, it outsold the One by 200k or so. Most of that was day one sales, Sony hardly had any supply the rest of the month. It will continue to have short supply in the US cause they are launching worldwide, MS doesnt care about the world so they will focus on mostly america. The amazing thing are the game splits, its looking like last gen but with PS as the lead with PS4 owners buying more than the One across the board. COD and Madden both selling better on PS4, wow. Killzone is the best selling exclusive of all this month. Knack sold in the 90k which is good considering.

Onto MS huge month, shows that the One will do just fine in the US. DR3 was the best selling exclusive, good. Basically Forza and Ryse all sold similar around the 200k mark. 360 still selling a TON, its going to be a while before people shift over. Look at those CoD splits, 50% still play on 360, how long before that number shifts toward next gen. Will Titanfall 360 outsell on the One?

Nintendo, oh poor Nintendo. 3DS is doing great but it did worst this Nov than last Nov and that is counting all the discounts, 2DS sales and the launch of  two huge games, Pokemon and Zelda. Zelda sold 400k, very nice. Then there is the Wii U, its dying, 230k in is very poor. Almost DC level. And that is with mario hitting. Mario 3D numbers are bad too, what happened to the insane attach rate NSMB had, wtf is wrong with those people who didnt get Mario 3D World.  Worst of all look at that CoD percentage, 0.33% of sales on the Wii U. There is no reason at all for a port on Wii U, its pathetic, its embarrasing, it is POINTLESS. Why should third parties bother.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 05:42:35
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More numbers:

Some more numbers

PS4 1.114m

XBone 909k

3DS 770k

360 647k

PS3 405k

WiiU 232k

Wii 67k

Vita ~ 70k

Tearaway ~ 14k

Call of Duty > 6 million. Someone did the math with the percentages:

Using 6,250,000 total units sold

1 = 401,250

4 = 461,875

360 = 3,465,625

3 = 1,901,250

u = 20,625 (ouch)

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 07:18:09
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Dreamcast had its worst November in 2000? That blows my mind because that is when all the killer games were coming out for it. How did it sell better in November 2001 when SEGA had already pulled the plug and the Gamecube and Xbox were launching?

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 08:11:03
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edgecrusher said:

Dreamcast had its worst November in 2000? That blows my mind because that is when all the killer games were coming out for it. How did it sell better in November 2001 when SEGA had already pulled the plug and the Gamecube and Xbox were launching?

It was probably dirt cheap.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 10:44:39
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Comparing Super Mario 3D World's Wii U attach rate to other 3D Mario titles

Hardware LTD Mario 3D Sales Attach Ratio




GCN 2.120.000 350.000 16.5%



Wii 6.000.000 1.120.000 18.7%



Wii U ~ 1.550.000 215.000 13.9%

Link
Are they calculating total lifetime sale attach rates for cube/wii compared to like a months worth of 3D World sales? Cause I would assume more copies would be sold, over the next few years. So the attach rate still has some movement left in it?

Edited: Fri, 13 Dec 2013 11:57:14

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 11:56:40
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Dvader said:

Worst of all look at that CoD percentage, 0.33% of sales on the Wii U. There is no reason at all for a port on Wii U, its pathetic, its embarrasing, it is POINTLESS. Why should third parties bother.

That's one game, a 7/10 game. But a lot of other U skus don't do well either. A lot of those were late or pointless ports with issues. ME3 etc

And yet:

Call of Duty: Ghosts platform split:
XBO - 6.42%
PS4 - 7.39%

Compared to:

360 - 55.45%

Why should they even do next gen support? 6% LOL that's crappy. (sarcasm alert)

COD Ghosts Wii U was once again, for like the 4th time not announced till the last minute, Activision pretended like it didn't exist. It was not previewed and rarely reviewed outside the specialist press. Unlike the big song and dance over PS4/X1 versions it received no enhancements outside of stock no-cost-features (offscreen support and IR). It had no engine improments, used current generation assets whilst PS4/X1 and PS3/360 had assets made tailored to their power levels. It was pawned off to Treyarch because Infinity Ward doesn't ever want to make a Nintendo game, ever.  And it's on a console which has seen unwarranted ritual abuse for the past two years.

The industry is also not helping keeping old systems on life support, the COD audience clearly is in the vast majority still buying it on current gen, but then an 80 million userbase is always going to sell more copies than a under 4 million userbase with next gen consoles. What we're seeing with Wii U is the effect of the self fufilling prophecy taking place. All we've seen is publishers and developers bailing out at an unprecedented rate. That hurts confidence and affects consumers, the kind of thing that affects countries in the recession. Everyone pulls back and stops spending money.

There was a good opinion piece here on Nintendo and the problem of mindshare

"I ask because on three separate occasions, standing in a store, I've been asked by parents who were interested in getting a Wii U for their family if it was a bad investment because, “I heard Nintendo is going out of business”. Nintendo is not going out of business. It is not even close to being in danger of. Nor is the Wii U in danger of being dropped. It will likely have an average console life. Yet, the persistent negativity has grown so pervasive that its even affecting the perception of parents and grandparents who know nothing about the industry, but have heard “Nintendo is Doomed”."

On a similar note, PC and Wii U sales of Splinter Cell were similar, selling around 1% of all Blacklist skus. But you never hear anyone arguing against PC support and it continually gets versions of the years biggest games. It must be very easy to make a PC sku when all games are made on PC and the no licence cost fees must make it cheaper to throw a version on. Nintendo should drop it's fees to zero at this point. Or just start buying developers to get more games out.

The Nintendo sections on most specialist sites is all indie, indie, indie now.

IMO if 3rd parties are worried about U game sales they should self publish on the eshop and go all digital. That would save them a bundle whilst still keeping Nintendo gamers on their side, if for example Nintendos' next home console was another Wii. Bailing out like EA will hurt both companies in the long term. Games like Zombi U, Blacklist, Deus Ex, Rayman all drive home how much better playing with this pad really is. It's smoother and easier as well as being more novel and interesting.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 13:11:30
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We also don't know the shipment numbers, are publishers still low balling U shipments, sending games out to die? And what about the instore retail presence, can you find ghosts U or other significant 3rd paty U games in stores outside specialists? All the advertising I've seen is for 360/X1 versions too. All of this stuff filters through and feeds back into the whole analysis.

There's also a Wii 1 hangover effect where the final years of Wii saw a significant drying up of 3rd party support but also a lack of many of the big name franchises that made their bread and butter on 360/PS3. Games like Ass Creed, COD and Splinter Cell, NFS, Mass effect are all 360/PS3 franchises carrying over to owners of PS4/X1. Wii owners who have got a U, many never got into the party with those franchises or got lesser, crapped over versions.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 13:12:29
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Definitely sad about Nintendo. I've pretty much made my peace that the Wii U won't last longer than 2015. Still, I'm already happy enough with the library. If it doubles over the next two years I'll be more than satisfied with it though. Hell I'm already pretty happy with it.

The Vita number is even sadder. I'd been considering it for a while, just to get my Persona fix, but fuck it man. If it doesn't break 250K during the holidays I think it's safe to say it'll be half priced next year.

But good start for both new consoles. Still way too early to predict which one will win out. That being said I still don't see a damn thing I want to play on either of them. *goes back to playing Milon's Secret Castle and watching Matlock*

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 13:28:16
robio said:

Definitely sad about Nintendo. I've pretty much made my peace that the Wii U won't last longer than 2015. Still, I'm already happy enough with the library. If it doubles over the next two years I'll be more than satisfied with it though. Hell I'm already pretty happy with it.

It had a 340% increase in sales from October, which ever way you want to slice it that's better than what it was doing. Games wise it's library of exclusives and other games is more than solid,  considering what's coming in 2014 and assuming there will be another Metroid and Zelda too. Very depressing the way it's been treated by the media and publishers.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 13:55:04
Dvader said:
edgecrusher said:

Dreamcast had its worst November in 2000? That blows my mind because that is when all the killer games were coming out for it. How did it sell better in November 2001 when SEGA had already pulled the plug and the Gamecube and Xbox were launching?

It was probably dirt cheap.

Yeah, they dropped to $99 before it was discontinued in early 2001.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 13:57:35
robio said:

...

But good start for both new consoles. Still way too early to predict which one will win out. That being said I still don't see a damn thing I want to play on either of them. *goes back to playing Milon's Secret Castle and watching Matlock*

Yup. I only took my PS4 out of the box to make sure it worked. Put in Fast and Furious 5 just to make sure the drive worked then turned it off.  Good movie, except when Dwaye Johnson was doing his insanely bad Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive impersonation.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 14:20:30
Yeah it's great to see both the PS4 and Xbox One off to such a good start. I'm a bit surprised that the Xbox One did so well considering all the backlash it received after the unveiling. It would seem that Microsoft did a pretty decent job turning things around in a relatively short time.

I too would like to get a PSVita for Persona and a few other games but these monthly sales report keep me second-guessing.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 14:43:47
gamingeek said:

It had a 340% increase in sales from October, which ever way you want to slice it that's better than what it was doing. Games wise it's library of exclusives and other games is more than solid,  considering what's coming in 2014 and assuming there will be another Metroid and Zelda too. Very depressing the way it's been treated by the media and publishers.



No question that the Wii U saw a nice bump. But the sales were really low in October so its not too hard to get a big holiday bounce. Hopefully it'll follow up with a strong December and maintain some level of momentum until DK hits.
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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 17:06:11

Yeah the wii u figures still seem low.. It simply got overshadowed by the other two launches. We will see how it does in dec but this number hardly screams that things are going in the right direction. I bet this kind of bump is simply normal for november, Wii U doesnt need normal, it needs a very clear shift towards an increase in sales.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 17:17:13

Yes seasonal bumps are the norm. 360 is killing it in america, even in black friday sales. IMO people should be comparing new console HW sales with Wii U launch sales in 2012 not with year later sales. It's doing better in Japan now with DQX and Mario 3D world. I think it's been proved that gamers aren't willing to buy premium priced Nintendo hardware anymore and expect it to be cheap as some sort of companion console.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 17:29:27
gamingeek said:

Yes seasonal bumps are the norm. 360 is killing it in america, even in black friday sales. IMO people should be comparing new console HW sales with Wii U launch sales in 2012 not with year later sales. It's doing better in Japan now with DQX and Mario 3D world. I think it's been proved that gamers aren't willing to buy premium priced Nintendo hardware anymore and expect it to be cheap as some sort of companion console.

Because it is a companion console. Nyaa

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 17:31:51
Dvader said:

Yeah the wii u figures still seem low.. It simply got overshadowed by the other two launches. We will see how it does in dec but this number hardly screams that things are going in the right direction. I bet this kind of bump is simply normal for november, Wii U doesnt need normal, it needs a very clear shift towards an increase in sales.

The only thing that could do that is if they got Call of Duty, Madden, or Grand Theft Auto exclusive.

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 17:44:02

Its hard to imagine Nintendo is having a hard time competing when you have these guys in charge:

iwata-luigi-640x339.jpgtumblr_m55kbyBl1b1qzv4vio1_250.jpg

reggie-mcchin.jpg

How can things go wrong?

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Fri, 13 Dec 2013 17:55:46
Dvader said:

Because it is a companion console. Nyaa

And that's why 3rd party sales will never recover unless there is some concerted effort to do something different, something unique, something exclusive. But you saw where that got Zombi U... and W101.

What happened to all the cheaper unique Wii style games which had lower budgets (and thus lower sales expectations) and traded on their uniqueness?

I really don't want to see another 5 years dominated by:

  1. Call of Duty
  2. Battlefield
  3. Assassin's Creed
  4. NBA 2K
  5. Madden NFL
  6. Need for Speed
  7. FIFA

This is like the UK chart of every week of every year. EA loves this sort of shit so they can just pump up visuals and deliver the same product with True-step.

I see gamers on GAF watching like vultures, waiting for a price bomb so they can pick over U's corpse, like what happened with dreamcast. Seems there is a basic expectation that any Nintendo console should be under $200 or no sale. So what do they want, advanced graphics and/or features, or as cheap as humanly possible with far less capability? Some just want Nintendo to die...... so they can play Zelda on their Xbox? Why doesn't Microsoft die so I can play Halo on my Nintendo?

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