Forum > Gaming Discussion > Nintendo is Doomed: Analysis on the recent 'bombs'
Nintendo is Doomed: Analysis on the recent 'bombs'
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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 02:55:40
...Did Yahoo just equate Deca Sporta to Wii Sports?

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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 03:17:48
Meh, I've got fun wii games to play, I've got a shit load I want to buy, so even if nothing else comes out for the rest of the year (which is utter BS btw if you look at the release schedule) then I'll still have enough to last me.

Now if only FIFA would let me play them! Sad

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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:08:26
Iga_Bobovic said:
gamingeek said:
Iga_Bobovic said:
Dvader said:
Im so glad we have this site. You make this thread at GS and it gets raided by haters in no time.

Copy and paste it over there and see what happens?

Oh God no. Then I get trolled and I can't even respond.

Why? Vader would not tell it was from you.  

They would track it back to me like when HiResDes posted my feelings on gamespot NPD monthly reactions waaaaaaaaaaaay back when.
travo said:
I'm like Vader.  I'd have Madworld in a skinny minute if I just owned the Wii.   There are too many 360 games that are really appealing to me at ther moment.

I hope you guys eventually pick it up and don't just rent it.

So, moving on to part 3 of this discussion, what are your expectations for upcoming Wii games. Let's be armchair analysts here. I will do an uber post eventually but don't have time right now.


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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 13:11:37

LMAO, someone left this comment on the yahoo games article:

"nintendo woo sucks, all the real gamers have either a ps3 or a 360. i personaly feel cheated by nintendo as i have funded them from day 1( Nes, game boy, Snes, game boy colour, N64, game boy advance, Game cube) and now they decide to only make games for my mum! shocking! thats why i have moved over to sony. at least they can still make a good game not just another nintendo woo tamogotchi simulator. nintendo should hurry up and die and let Microsoft and Sony push games to the limit."

Oh and this LOL

"nintendo rules, yahoo you suck big balls."

"Let's be honest the Wii is a bit of a novelty controller-wise. Although many of the action-based games work well on the Wii remote, more traditional style games such as platform and driving games are quite bizarre to play on it. Has anybody tried to play Pro-Evolution Soccer on it? I mean, WTF!?"

"suck my @$$ yahoo! uk games editor"

Edited: Tue, 21 Apr 2009 13:27:02

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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:52:02

gamingeek said:
They would track it back to me like when HiResDes posted my feelings on gamespot NPD monthly reactions waaaaaaaaaaaay back when.
travo said:
I'm like Vader.  I'd have Madworld in a skinny minute if I just owned the Wii.   There are too many 360 games that are really appealing to me at ther moment.

I hope you guys eventually pick it up and don't just rent it.

So, moving on to part 3 of this discussion, what are your expectations for upcoming Wii games. Let's be armchair analysts here. I will do an uber post eventually but don't have time right now.


Punch-Out will sell ok, 400-500k in the US.

Wii Sports 2 will join the never ending selling Wii games on the NPD. It will be on there forever.

Games like Little Kings Story, Muramasa, wont chart, probably wont sell that well. We will get info later that it sold a few 100ks or so.

Silent Hill - 130k first month

RE UC2 - will sell in the 200k range when it hits and be another million seller worldwide cause its RE.

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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 19:45:35

Dvader said:

Punch-Out will sell ok, 400-500k in the US.

Wii Sports 2 will join the never ending selling Wii games on the NPD. It will be on there forever.

Games like Little Kings Story, Muramasa, wont chart, probably wont sell that well. We will get info later that it sold a few 100ks or so.

Silent Hill - 130k first month

RE UC2 - will sell in the 200k range when it hits and be another million seller worldwide cause its RE.

Agreed on RE and Little Kings Story etc.

So here are my thoughts.

Wii SPORTS RESORT

I think this will be the Wii Music of Nintendo non-games titles. People were suprised when Wii Music didn't blow it out like Wii Fit. It still has done remarkably well compared to normal games (2.5 million sold so far). Sports resort is not SPORT. It's not taking sports concepts and translating them to motion, which is what they should have done, cricket, american football, rugby, soccor, hockey or whatever. This is just a random collection of minigame type material with the wii sports branding. All these years on, people are over Mii's and motion and unless they can push home the message of motionplus I think this game will fail to capture the public imagination.

Bundling motionplus will help but now that other games are coming out first, Nintendo's hand has been forced and the EA bundles will help those games first and might hurt sports resort.

THE CONDUIT

Out of SEGA's hardcore trio this game has more potential for success than the ultraviolence of Madworld and Overkill. It has a few things in its favour, firstly there are three FPS games that have breached a million sales on the system. Secondly it has had a traditional development time and the developers have made all the right noises to make people at least take the game semi-seriously.

The problem is that it looks generic and that it will be competing against FPS on other systems, not just wii and it doesn't have a big brand to back it up. Red Steel had the launch window advantage, COD Wow has the brand name and combined marketing awareness. Metroid Prime 3 was the third game in a highly acclaimed series.  

Conduit is by an unproven developer. The T rating will help, it would be silly to limit sales with an M rating on a game like this. I would say that this game will sell between 550'000-750'000 but I hope that it does more for the sake of future 3rd party support.

GRAND SLAM TENNIS

A new contender. EA have wisely firstly focused the game on Wii, this tells from the cartoony visuals to being the premiere motionplus game. It will have the characters, the branding and the tournaments and will do at least as well as their other sports titles. So definetely over a million in the long run (past games like Tiger woods have breached that twice). They've also made the smart move of making it a timed exclusive and having back up in the form of PS3 and 360 versions. Lessen the risk

I will do the ones below later:

LITTLE KINGS STORY

SILENT HILL SHATTERED MEMORIES

FINAL FANTASY CRYSTAL CHRONICLES THE CRYSTAL BEARERS

TALES OF GRACES

MONSTER HUNTER 3

DEAD SPACE EXTRACTION

RESIDENT EVIL DARKSIDE CHRONICLES

BOOM BLOX BASH PARTY

Edited: Tue, 21 Apr 2009 19:49:14

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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 21:00:57

Guys some info:

Forecast from Marvelous

Japan :

• Harvest Moon WakuWaku Animal March (Wii) - Starting shipment : 43k, FY forecast : 50k
• Avalon Code (DS) - Starting shipment : 74k, FY forecast : 85k (upped from 56k)
• Akagawa Jirou Mystery (DS) - Starting shipment 23k, FY forecast : 29k
• Hitman Reborn (Wii) - Starting shipment : 17k, FY forecast : 19k
• Rune Factory Frontier (Wii) - Starting retail preorders : 45k, FY forecast : 55k
• Harvest Moon Welcome to the Wind Bazaar (DS) - Starting retail preorders 120k, FY forecast 170k
• Oboro Muramasa Youtouden (Wii) - [previous forecast was 56k, but this may change]

Europe :

• Harvest Moon Island of Happiness (DS) - Starting retail preorders : 130k, FY forecast is down from 450k to 250k
• Rune Factory A Fantasy Harvest Moon (DS) - FY Forecast is down from 80k to 60k
• Harvest Moon Tree of Tranquility (Wii) - FY Forecast : 220k
• Little King’s Story (Wii) - FY forecast is up from 124k to 125k

America :

• Avalon Code (DS) - FY forecast : 40k
• Rune Factory Frontier (Wii) - FY forecast : 100k
• Little King’s Story (Wii) - FY forecast up from 120k to 150k

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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 21:21:58

Conduit will not be in the 500k range. That game will sell around 100-200k in the US max. I expect very little if nothing from that game.

Dead Space will do well, not RE good but close.

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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 23:07:33

I'm very interested in Conduit. I think it could possibly hit in the million range. What kinds of games are supposed to be in Wii Sports Resort?
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Tue, 21 Apr 2009 23:19:16
I fully expect The Conduit to sell at least a million worldwide. It has quite a bit of hype behind it, and there are a lot people pushing for it to succeed. If Red Steel can do it, then so can The Conduit.

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Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:45:21

Dvader in sales I mean in the long term and worldwide.

Just a side note on Japanese sales:

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1223707_1124.html

Wii       8 million sold

PS3      3 million

360      1 million

Even if PS3 keeps beating Wii by a few thousand each week it would take like 10 years + for it to overtake that figure. That's why these sales stories seem so reactionary. PS3 could beat Wii sales by this amount for a 2 years running and the whole perception would change about the console wars, but the reality would be that one system has sold a lot more than the other.

Dvader said:

Conduit will not be in the 500k range. That game will sell around 100-200k in the US max. I expect very little if nothing from that game.

Dead Space will do well, not RE good but close.

You really think so? The problem with Dead Space is that the first game was on a rival platform so it's really like a totally new IP for most system owners. RE has the whole history of RE to draw upon. I expect Extraction to do okay in the long term, but poorly in the short term. It doesn't help that they dumbed it down to on rails.

travo said:

I'm very interested in Conduit. I think it could possibly hit in the million range. What kinds of games are supposed to be in Wii Sports Resort?

Have you checked out the conduit thread here?

Wii Sports resort has dog frisbee throwing, jet skiing and sabre fighting and its rumoured that the flying game that was omitted from Wii Sports 1 will make an appearance too.

Ravenprose said:
I fully expect The Conduit to sell at least a million worldwide. It has quite a bit of hype behind it, and there are a lot people pushing for it to succeed. If Red Steel can do it, then so can The Conduit.

But will it live up to the hype? I think it wont. In review terms I expect between 7.2-9.0 max and most to say something like "good for the platform". It has a good shot of being a success, but I'm not sure a million. Red Steel had absurd hype and virtually no competition at launch.

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Wed, 22 Apr 2009 09:47:15

I just saw this Conduit thing mocked up at High Voltage:

WWII_soldier.jpg

Anyhow more food for thought, now that we know that in Japan Wii has sold as much as the competition combined -as in America - now we have the news that its repeated this feat in the second largest market in the world: the UK.

http://www.edge-online.com/news/uk-lifetime-hardware-sales-revealed

Wii 4.9 million

360 3.2 million

PS3 1.9 million

Edited: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:41:20

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Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:39:40

gamingeek said:

Ravenprose said:
I fully expect The Conduit to sell at least a million worldwide. It has quite a bit of hype behind it, and there are a lot people pushing for it to succeed. If Red Steel can do it, then so can The Conduit.

But will it live up to the hype? I think it wont. In review terms I expect between 7.2-9.0 max and most to say something like "good for the platform". It has a good shot of being a success, but I'm not sure a million. Red Steel had absurd hype and virtually no competition at launch.

Well, The Conduit doesn't have any competition right now either. The last good Wii FPS came out like last November sometime, I think.  Also, the user base is much, much, much bigger than it was when Red Steel came out too. Reviews matter not to most people. Wii owners are going to look at the graphics, controls, and online play, then decide whether or not to buy it based on that. Red Steel was bashed relentlessly in reviews, yet it sold a million, and it didin't even have online play. IMO, online play will be The Conduit's biggest selling point, and will be the main reason it'll sell at least a million world wide.

Edited: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:56:53

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Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:55:19


LOL at the Conduit ad.  Yes, I've checked out some info on the Conduit.  What is the flying game that was left out in Wii Sports?  I've never heard that.  

I wouldn't dismiss Wii Sports Resort as being as lame as Wii Music yet.  There's room for a lot of fun Multiplayer competitions, especially if Nintendo got wise to online for the game.  Who the hell am I kidding?.

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Wed, 22 Apr 2009 20:31:38

Ravenprose said:

gamingeek said:

Ravenprose said:
I fully expect The Conduit to sell at least a million worldwide. It has quite a bit of hype behind it, and there are a lot people pushing for it to succeed. If Red Steel can do it, then so can The Conduit.

But will it live up to the hype? I think it wont. In review terms I expect between 7.2-9.0 max and most to say something like "good for the platform". It has a good shot of being a success, but I'm not sure a million. Red Steel had absurd hype and virtually no competition at launch.

Well, The Conduit doesn't have any competition right now either. The last good Wii FPS came out like last November sometime, I think.  Also, the user base is much, much, much bigger than it was when Red Steel came out too. Reviews matter not to most people. Wii owners are going to look at the graphics, controls, and online play, then decide whether or not to buy it based on that. Red Steel was bashed relentlessly in reviews, yet it sold a million, and it didin't even have online play. IMO, online play will be The Conduit's biggest selling point, and will be the main reason it'll sell at least a million world wide.

Remember that MOHH2 had 32 player online on Wii and didn't sell well. Sure it was world war 2. But then CODWOW sold over a million and has 4 player online or is it 8?

When I say Red Steel had no competition I mean in terms of all availibe software not just FPS.

travo said:


LOL at the Conduit ad.  Yes, I've checked out some info on the Conduit.  What is the flying game that was left out in Wii Sports?  I've never heard that.  

I wouldn't dismiss Wii Sports Resort as being as lame as Wii Music yet.  There's room for a lot of fun Multiplayer competitions, especially if Nintendo got wise to online for the game.  Who the hell am I kidding?.

Yeah who are you kidding LOL

This is the aeroplane thing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG201q53b8U

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Thu, 23 Apr 2009 02:39:19

gamingeek said:

travo said:


LOL at the Conduit ad.  Yes, I've checked out some info on the Conduit.  What is the flying game that was left out in Wii Sports?  I've never heard that.  

I wouldn't dismiss Wii Sports Resort as being as lame as Wii Music yet.  There's room for a lot of fun Multiplayer competitions, especially if Nintendo got wise to online for the game.  Who the hell am I kidding?.

Yeah who are you kidding LOL

This is the aeroplane thing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG201q53b8U

My God I want Pilotwings!

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Thu, 23 Apr 2009 04:04:28

Foolz said:

gamingeek said:

travo said:


LOL at the Conduit ad.  Yes, I've checked out some info on the Conduit.  What is the flying game that was left out in Wii Sports?  I've never heard that.  

I wouldn't dismiss Wii Sports Resort as being as lame as Wii Music yet.  There's room for a lot of fun Multiplayer competitions, especially if Nintendo got wise to online for the game.  Who the hell am I kidding?.

Yeah who are you kidding LOL

This is the aeroplane thing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG201q53b8U

My God I want Pilotwings!

A new Pilotwings  would probably get me to come back to Wii . . . eventually, but I seriously doubt Nintendo will ever release one; it's just too niche.

That video pisses me off. Nintendo shows that awesome Pilotwings-like demo back in 2006, but then we never hear from it again. I'm also pissed that Project Hammer was cancelled. FU, Nintendo! 

Edited: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 04:05:20

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Thu, 23 Apr 2009 09:46:14

LITTLE KINGS STORY

So this one is easy, despite how good the game is, what titles can you compare it to? From the makers of Harvest Moon? Okay, Harvest Moon like sales. It's like Pikmin? Pikmin wasn't a huge success, even with the nintendo brand. The game will do well within those expectations.

Edited: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 09:49:16

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Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:00:17

gamingeek said:

LITTLE KINGS STORY

So this one is easy, despite how good the game is, what titles can you compare it to? From the makers of Harvest Moon? Okay, Harvest Moon like sales. It's like Pikmin? Pikmin wasn't a huge success, even with the nintendo brand. The game will do well within those expectations.

This one is very easy! Look up, I posted Marvelous sales forecasts and LKS is in it.

Europe: 125k

NA: 150k 

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Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:13:46

Iga_Bobovic said:

gamingeek said:

LITTLE KINGS STORY

So this one is easy, despite how good the game is, what titles can you compare it to? From the makers of Harvest Moon? Okay, Harvest Moon like sales. It's like Pikmin? Pikmin wasn't a huge success, even with the nintendo brand. The game will do well within those expectations.

This one is very easy! Look up, I posted Marvelous sales forecasts and LKS is in it.

Europe: 125k

NA: 150k

That's great that they aren't deluded into thinking it will be some amazing seller. Like Platinum games and Madworld "We think it can be a system seller" ROFFLES. Maybe for a small portion of hardcore gamers yeah.

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