We had cool phones and mp3 players and gadgets that "all the kids" wanted long be4 the iphones, that didn't stop the DS from selling 135 million units and still going strong. Sure, iphones and ipads will steal some sales here and there thanks to the gaming functions, but hell, they're also part of handheld gaming now, how is it in trouble if the gaming side of such devices is on the rise, even if the type of games made for them tend to be different, like browser gaming differs to retail games. Devices like that were sold even before they offered gaming functions, now that they do this handheld gaming is expanding, not shrinking. Nintendo has little to worry about as for the most part it's a different audience, although they can benefit from that audience as well if they get a bigger presence with DSiWare type games that cost very little, like the i platform games do, as long as they do it in a way that won't harm normal game sales, making sure people know the difference in value they can expect when buying each type of game. Like Sony is naming the $1-5 games on PSN "minis" indicating they're bite sized experiences. But more aggressively. Keeping system costs as low as possible while expanding the feature set to include things like internet browsing, movie playback and maybe communications, will also help compete. I really don't think many parents buy their kids expensive phones, but less costly gaming systems are common gifts. The 3DS may start off more expensive than expected to take advantage of early adopters, but it will drop.

3DS

It's 3D.

Every kid wants 3D. The system will be like a dream come true, even for us over 30s. It will sell like a beast. And so far, only Nintendo has the development studios and commitment to keep making compelling handheld games. I'm not saying that no one else makes great handheld games, just that Nintendo is like a handheld guarantee policy. You always know you are going to get enough good games to make the system worth owning.

Also, smarter people get android phones that do most of the same stuff as iPhone but are better performance wise or cost wise. I still want a dedicated gaming device.

Looking at that disturbing study that showed that kids want iPhones over consoles you have to factor in that those kids probably already have a Wii and DS, so if they are asked, "... of these items which do you want?" they are going to ask for the thing they don't already have.

I think the PSP2 probably is DOA.  I love my PSP, have (I think about 80-90) games for it. I use it to browse the web, play media etc.., but I won't be getting a PSP2 because all indications are that it will be download media only.  If Sony enumerates in great detail the exact status of my ownership of downloadable games, and on what and how many devices I can store them (and what the migration is off of the system onto future systems) then I'd be comfortable enough moving forward, but obviosuly they won't.

Nintendo will prosper in the hand-held market as long as there are children.  The need for a portable hand-held gaming device for a child has been established.  No multi-faceted tool will supplant that space, because all those are more expensive, more fragile and have short shelf lives.  I fNintendo pushes the price up they will decrease their market share, but they won't suffer greatly.

I can see why an adult would think, "oh yeah DS is dead, just get and Android" because most adults don't use hand-helds extensively and when they do get an urge to game in public, a smart-phone is more than enough for them.  Up until 3 years ago I NEVER finished a hand-held game since I had been 17, and circumstances re-introduced me to the joys of handheld gaming -- but for most adults, that's not the case.

I'm also very skeptical of the handheld gaming surveys. The timing of them is very poor and I'm always a little suspect of "random surveys" unless full disclosure is offered (and it rarely is). But even discarding that, there is no statistical evidence to support that handheld gaming is going anywhere.  Week in and week out the PSP and/or DS are usually top selling systems in Japan, and in the states the DS is always the top selling system barring price discounts or the launch of a hugely anticipated title. Sales for software is probably low for both systems, but in all fairness piracy is rampant for both of them and despite that occasion handheld titles routinely rule the sales charts in Japan, and even on occasion here.

The 3DS will be fine and will likely match all DS sales records.  PSP2 is still too unknown to make any real guesses on how it will perform or if there will be real demand. Only time will tell on that.

When I say the PSP2 is DOA, I am of course, talking about the West, not Japan.

Where did Sony screw up with the PSP (assuming selling 55 million of anything is a screw-up)?

Sony is at it's heart an electronics company.  They understand electronics very well, and what kind of aspects go into a nice gadget.  Piano-black finish, gorgeous screen, sleek design and so on. They figure if it's cool enough, people will pay what they will so that they can cover the cost of the device.  If I had a kid the very LAST thing I'd give him or her would be what I've just described.  If I drop my PSP I freak the fuck out every time.  When I drop my DS, I don't care. I know it will still work, because it's made to be abused by children (who abuse the fuck out of everything from what I have observed).  I'm really serious about this point, if I had a kid I would not want them anywhere near my PSPs.

In Japan the handheld market is not directed exclusivly at children, so they've been able to get away with marketing the PSP as the home console you take with you.

I am clearly irrational about my disdain for downloadable only content, but I do think that is another reason why the PSP2 is DOA in the west for children.  If you introduce credit cards and app stores as the only way to get games then you have just complicated a parents life.  It's one thing to throw a game into the cart at Wal*Mart while you are shopping, it's another to pickup your kids device (that you only use when he wants a new game) figure out how to FIND and then buy a game (and then trust that it's really there? I just paid $30 for a game and it's stuck "in there"  where do I get it when Johnny fucks this one up and I have to get him another? And what about Grandma and others who want to get Johnny that PSP game?

For adult hand-held gamers none of this is a big deal -- but really, what percentage of adults wouldn't just prefer to get an Android or that other thing?

So, that's what I was thinking when I said PSP2 is DOA.

robio said:

..A good first step I think would be NOT calling it the PSP2 and finding a name that separates it.

Absolutely.  I think their price will be a good indication of how serious they are about selling it in the west.  The PSPGo was so obviously a trial baloon, I want to see if they do the same here, release the PSP2 at a price that only the hardest of hardcore fanboy would go for (for the sake of appearances) and concentrate on the Japanese market.  It's not like they have any western development support for the platform.