If Move fails to move and 3D fizzles on the TV screen, will this spell the End for Sony?
The 3DS will be big.The reason timing. 3D is the new fad, but people just bought a new HD. No way that they are going to speed 1000 of Euro's (fuck the dollar) to buy a new set. Also there is always the glasses thing. 3DS will be for many people their first home experience with 3D and glassless 3D at that. So why waste €3000 on a new TV while you can buy a cheap €250 handheld?
Plus there is the casual market with the 3DS thanks to the DS, the japanese games market again thanks to the DS, Nintendo's own games and finally all the other 3rd party support. All these factors combined, plus the 3D photo's thing, it will be huge. Even bigger than the DS I think.
Kinect and Move will fail commercially. What will be the impact?
+ MS. Assuming they have been doing the ground work for a new console and can act rapidly, no impact. In fact they get a positive bump from the reset that Kinect provided. Kinect was a reason to get back in front the general public and say, "... hey look they NEW 360!" The Kinect will not *artificially* extend the life of the 360 because the 360 is having a fine time of it as it is, it's doesn't need any artificial stimulation.
If MS does NOT have a new console in the works that they could deploy in 2-3 years, and they are relying on the Kinect to carry them, they may have trouble. This may be on purpose though. There are a lot of uncertainties in this industry for anyone, but particularly MS who sees the 360 as a key part in the set-top box strategy. The uncertainties are:
1. Set-top box business is changing rapidly. Apple, Google, Hulu and Boxy are all getting into it, and doing it cheaper. The cable distributors will be next.
2. Physical media is still up in the air. If you stick with it, do you go the Blue-Ray route or stick with DVD.
3. If the recession-like environment continues for 2-3 more years gaming is not going to eb a good place to stay.
MS might be buying time to assess if this is a market they want to remain in as a full-console manufacturer (or if they want to license XBL to the other set-top makers and go digital).
-==-
I don't think Sony is counting on Move for anything. They will treat it like the eye-toy on PS2 and fully incorporate it in the next gen. I do think Sony is around for at least one more gen, the PS brand is a key part of selling TV's and media -- and Sony is turning it around with their install base.
I predicted all of this to come true so I am not shocked. 
Yeah this generation is beyond insane. Nothing makes sense. Companies are shifting strategies on the whim, year to year. There is a whole new aspect of the market opened up by Nintendo that has every company scrambling for a piece of it often to hilariously bad results (or sad ones like Just Dance).
Last gen was the most simple gen I think the industry ever had. Most other gens had a bunch of random competitors no one cared about like 3DO or TG16. Other gens had crazy gambles like Sega CD, 32x, Virtua Boy. But last gen it was simple, 3 major consoles (one that died early), normal 5 year life span. Sony had the variety, Xbox had the shooters, and Nintendo had the Nintendo games. Their identities were easy to distinguish, they all carved their own spot.
This gen... I don't know. It's incredible. It should be studied, analyzed, and broken down for years to come.
Iga_Bobovic said:The 3DS will be big.The reason timing. 3D is the new fad, but people just bought a new HD. No way that they are going to speed 1000 of Euro's (fuck the dollar) to buy a new set. Also there is always the glasses thing. 3DS will be for many people their first home experience with 3D and glassless 3D at that. So why waste €3000 on a new TV while you can buy a cheap €250 handheld?
Plus there is the casual market with the 3DS thanks to the DS, the japanese games market again thanks to the DS, Nintendo's own games and finally all the other 3rd party support. All these factors combined, plus the 3D photo's thing, it will be huge. Even bigger than the DS I think.
Bold prediction from Iga. Tomorrow he will predict if the sun comes up or not.
3DS is the most sure bet I have seen in years. It will be HUGE. (now watch it fail)
Dvader said:Iga_Bobovic said:The 3DS will be big.The reason timing. 3D is the new fad, but people just bought a new HD. No way that they are going to speed 1000 of Euro's (fuck the dollar) to buy a new set. Also there is always the glasses thing. 3DS will be for many people their first home experience with 3D and glassless 3D at that. So why waste €3000 on a new TV while you can buy a cheap €250 handheld?
Plus there is the casual market with the 3DS thanks to the DS, the japanese games market again thanks to the DS, Nintendo's own games and finally all the other 3rd party support. All these factors combined, plus the 3D photo's thing, it will be huge. Even bigger than the DS I think.
Bold prediction from Iga. Tomorrow he will predict if the sun comes up or not.
3DS is the most sure bet I have seen in years. It will be HUGE. (now watch it fail)
Actually the sun never comes up, it is the world that turn around the sun. So with that information it is time to get burned for my heresy.Burn baby burn
aspro said:Kinect and Move will fail commercially. What will be the impact?
+ MS. Assuming they have been doing the ground work for a new console and can act rapidly, no impact. In fact they get a positive bump from the reset that Kinect provided. Kinect was a reason to get back in front the general public and say, "... hey look they NEW 360!" The Kinect will not *artificially* extend the life of the 360 because the 360 is having a fine time of it as it is, it's doesn't need any artificial stimulation.
If MS does NOT have a new console in the works that they could deploy in 2-3 years, and they are relying on the Kinect to carry them, they may have trouble. This may be on purpose though. There are a lot of uncertainties in this industry for anyone, but particularly MS who sees the 360 as a key part in the set-top box strategy. The uncertainties are:
1. Set-top box business is changing rapidly. Apple, Google, Hulu and Boxy are all getting into it, and doing it cheaper. The cable distributors will be next.
2. Physical media is still up in the air. If you stick with it, do you go the Blue-Ray route or stick with DVD.
3. If the recession-like environment continues for 2-3 more years gaming is not going to eb a good place to stay.
MS might be buying time to assess if this is a market they want to remain in as a full-console manufacturer (or if they want to license XBL to the other set-top makers and go digital).
-==-
I don't think Sony is counting on Move for anything. They will treat it like the eye-toy on PS2 and fully incorporate it in the next gen. I do think Sony is around for at least one more gen, the PS brand is a key part of selling TV's and media -- and Sony is turning it around with their install base.
Kinect will not be that big a faliure. It won't live up to the stupid predictions of MS but it will do very well. MS advertising wizards won't allow it to fail.
I look at the Move launch of Friday, how many commercials did we see about it, a few. How much buzz was there, almost none. I went to Best Buy to see it on display, oops sorry no display, just a disconnected PS3 with a Move mat on the floor.
I am certain MS will have Kinect displays EVERYWHERE. There will be non stop commercials on TV. They will have interviews on every damn cable financial news channel there is. They will be on late night talk shows. They will be on Ellen, Oprah and the like. They will cover this country with so much Kinect crap that people will buy it.
Iga_Bobovic said:Actually the sun never comes up, it is the world that turn around the sun. So with that information it is time to get burned for my heresy.Burn baby burn
Damn you Iga!!!
Will Call of Duty ever end?
Will people get tired of IT like they did Rock Band/Guitar Hero/Dance Dance and all the other peripheral HEAVY games?
Are gamers tired of FPS yet?
Is Vanquish the new trend, meaning close enough to what we know but with heavy gimmicks to make them fresh?
Can Japan EVER break into THIS market?
Nintendo turned everyone on their ears with Motion Control and the Wii.
They said they had something special planned for their next handheld and it APPEARS they have delivered with the 3DS.
Now they are claiming to have something special lined up for their next Console. Can they do it AGAIN? What do you think they have planned?
This is gonna sound crazy, but I think Nintendo's next console is gonna look like this:
...meaning: It will either USE glasses to produce 3D effects on a NORMAL TV set and connect Wirelessly to a Base Console --OR-- You'll insert something like a Game Card --INTO-- the Glasses and THEY will --BE-- the console.
Let me clarify something. I said "commerical failure" that was wrong.
Kinect will sell plenty, but it will not be an effective surrogate for a new MS console, which is what MS has said they want it to be.
Move will sell like the EyeToy -- which was a commercial success -- it just didn't change the world.
phantom_leo said:Nintendo turned everyone on their ears with Motion Control and the Wii.
They said they had something special planned for their next handheld and it APPEARS they have delivered with the 3DS.
Now they are claiming to have something special lined up for their next Console. Can they do it AGAIN? What do you think they have planned?
Ultra-realistic sex dolls.
...but where would you plug-in the...?
...Ohhhhhh!
Good idea! 
phantom_leo said:...Can Japan EVER break into THIS market?
What do you mean? Japan created THIS market. Now that the domestic development has evolved to a higher point Japan has gone back and focused on their domestic market. Some of that will still appeal to many western gamers, most won't.
Will Japan ever get back the leadership of the western market from the western developers? I can;t see it happening, and even more, at this point I don;t see a need for it. So long as they continue to provide influence on some level.
aspro said:phantom_leo said:...Can Japan EVER break into THIS market?
What do you mean? Japan created THIS market. Now that the domestic development has evolved to a higher point Japan has gone back and focused on their domestic market. Some of that will still appeal to many western gamers, most won't.
Will Japan ever get back the leadership of the western market from the western developers? I can;t see it happening, and even more, at this point I don;t see a need for it. So long as they continue to provide influence on some level.
I mean the FPS market. If Halo and Call of Duty are what's "IN" and Japan can't make a good FPS, what will they contribute...?
Nothing. They don't need to. Japan has never ever liked or gotten the immediacy and adrenalin of the FPS. They don't get anything about it and never will.
They are forbidden in their constitution from having an army. Black Ops got a Cero z rating which means it is kept behind the counter -- and the cover has to be covered. It's just not their bag.
It's like wondering if they'll ever break into the Madden or GTA market.
Do you think Developers still have in their heads that gamers want a Virtual Reality like experience?
With 3D technology being the next big thing and motion control already here, is that what they are going for?
^ I hope so, but it needs to be done without giant helmets. If 3D can get to the point where it feels like the whole screen is surrounding you that would be good enough for a sort of virtual reality game. Add in head tracking from a camera and motion controls and you got something amazing. The future will be something like that. We won't be sitting in front of a TV set with a controller forever.
phantom_leo said:I mean the FPS market. If Halo and Call of Duty are what's "IN" and Japan can't make a good FPS, what will they contribute...?
Bayonetta - best action game of the year
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - Best game of the year
GT5 - will be the best racing game of the year/ generation
MGS Peace Walker - Best portable game of the year
They are still the best in many categories.
In my opinion, the industry is in a weird, unprecedented state at the moment.
Console design life-spans, normally 5 years, are now being doubled by motion-control implementation.
Proven genres are being challenged. (No one on PC plays shooters anymore?!)
Publishers are demanding more digital distribution to save money. Gamers are demanding Disc-based gaming remains.
Japan is claiming the West leads the industry while developers are scrambling to play catch up with the Wii and the DS.
Nintendo is the market leader and Sony is in the dumpster. Microsoft retains its loyal fan-base, but will they dis-Kinect with them in the near future?
Three years ago, everyone wanted to make the next GTA. Two years ago was the age of Plastic Musical instruments. Last year Call of Duty became the in thing. This year everyone wants their own Wii Sports.
Nintendo is banking on 3D being the next big thing for the next five years, but no one is breaking their bank to buy a 3D TV for the PS3. Hollywood is already over the fad.
The Fighting Genre is back in all its Glory, while the JRPG is quickly going extinct...
The industry has finally gotten the idea that retro-gaming will always be popular; is this because of the lack of new ideas or are we hitting the reset button and going back to older more simpler times thanks to Nintendo...?
Anyone care to predict the future and see where ALL of this is leading?
Will the landscape of the industry be totally different yet again next year? Will the Sun Rise on Japan again? Will things remain the same? Can Nintendo hold its position? If motion control is already old and 3D doesnt take hold, then what?
Thoughts?