So the rounds of free poker tournaments are over. I placed high enough in 2 of the 9 (I think) that I earned real cash. I ended up with $1.50 total.
Now the dilemma is what should I do to maximize this profit?
I've narrowed it down to 6 options, 2 low-risk options where I get 6 shots at any combination of them, and 3 high-risk options where I only get one shot. The first 5 are tournaments, the last one is just playing at an actual table.
Low-Risk
Option 1:
$0.25 entry fee
45 entrants, 7 places paid:
1st - $3.49
2nd - $2.42
3rd – $1.86
4th – $1.41
5th – $1.01
6th – $0.67
7th – $0.39
Option 2:
$0.25 entry fee
90 entrants, 12 places paid
1st - $6.20
2nd - $4.17
3rd – $3.16
4th – $2.14
5th – $1.57
6th – $1.18
7th – $0.95
8th - $0.84
9th - $0.67
10th to 12th - $0.54
High-Risk
Option 3:
$1.20 entry fee
45 entrants, 7 places paid
1st - $14.00
2nd - $10.00
3rd – $7.00
4th – $5.00
5th – $4.00
6th – $3.00
7th – $2.00
Option 4:
$1.20 entry fee
27 entrants, 5 places paid
1st - $10.00
2nd - $7.20
3rd – $4.80
4th – $2.80
5th – $2.20
Option 5:
$1.20 entry fee
9 entrants, 3 places paid
1st - $4.50
2nd - $2.70
3rd – $1.80
Option 6:
Play at $0.01/$0.02 table with all $1.50
- Inexperienced players that will call with marginal hands, both good and bad... bad if they get lucky.
- I lose everything approximately 40% of the time.
Now the dilemma is what should I do to maximize this profit?
I've narrowed it down to 6 options, 2 low-risk options where I get 6 shots at any combination of them, and 3 high-risk options where I only get one shot. The first 5 are tournaments, the last one is just playing at an actual table.
Low-Risk
Option 1:
$0.25 entry fee
45 entrants, 7 places paid:
1st - $3.49
2nd - $2.42
3rd – $1.86
4th – $1.41
5th – $1.01
6th – $0.67
7th – $0.39
Option 2:
$0.25 entry fee
90 entrants, 12 places paid
1st - $6.20
2nd - $4.17
3rd – $3.16
4th – $2.14
5th – $1.57
6th – $1.18
7th – $0.95
8th - $0.84
9th - $0.67
10th to 12th - $0.54
High-Risk
Option 3:
$1.20 entry fee
45 entrants, 7 places paid
1st - $14.00
2nd - $10.00
3rd – $7.00
4th – $5.00
5th – $4.00
6th – $3.00
7th – $2.00
Option 4:
$1.20 entry fee
27 entrants, 5 places paid
1st - $10.00
2nd - $7.20
3rd – $4.80
4th – $2.80
5th – $2.20
Option 5:
$1.20 entry fee
9 entrants, 3 places paid
1st - $4.50
2nd - $2.70
3rd – $1.80
Option 6:
Play at $0.01/$0.02 table with all $1.50
- Inexperienced players that will call with marginal hands, both good and bad... bad if they get lucky.
- I lose everything approximately 40% of the time.
Recently Spotted:
travo (4s)
So far I've got:
- 1 vote for Option 4 from a dumbass on Yahoo Answers
- 1 vote for Option 3 from someone decent at math who I trust, but knows nothing about poker, on the idea "It's not like you don't have another $1.20 lying around somewhere."
In terms of the low-risk, Option 1 has 15.5% whereas Option 2 has 13.3%, but that percentage appears worth the risk, given the additional players means more who suck and it probably evens out, plus better rewards.
I think what I'll do is play the $0.25 tournaments until I either go broke or get over $5.00, then I'll play Option 5.
That way I'm only risking ~17% of my bankroll per game right now, instead of 80%.
I don't know if I'm bastardizing probability here, but...
0.155(3) + 0.133(3) = 0.864
I believe that means playing three games of Option 1 and three games of Option 2 has an 86.4% chance of return for at least 1 of the 6 games. (Ignoring the fact that they're all independant of each other.) Probably wrong but it looks good on paper
I just discovered something called "Double or nothing" tables.
You buy in with $1.00 + $0.15
Top 5 players all get $2.
I might be able to double my money without doing anything at all. 50% return is too tempting to give up. Well 42.5% with the 15 cent rake, but still. I'm going to observe these tables and see how fast they finish, get a general idea of the skill level, etc.
Finally I actually got a decent piece of advice on Yahoo Answers:
At that low a level you want to minimize your risk, as a single bad beat can wipe you out if you're playing too high. Multi table tournaments are generally the toughest way to systematically grow your bankroll, the variance is extreme. I would (and actually have) do one of three things
1) A $1.00 + 0.10 double or nothing tourney. 10 entrants, 5 get paid. These are generally super easy to cash in. If you can outlast half the field you get paid. I've won without playing a single hand.
2) Single table sng's. This has a bigger payoff, but you have to outlast more people to make the money. And if you only get third than you haven't made as much as a double or nothing.
3) Cash/ring games. This is a grinder's option, and if you're good it will be a slow slog. Buying in for 80 cents and making 40 cents profit will be a good night.
If I were you, and I just wanted some breathing room to start building a real bankroll, I would play the double or nothing tourneys. They're easy to beat, and don't have a lot of risk. Progress to the single table sng's, and if you win first take one buyin to devote to a MTT. This is all about bankroll management. Chris Ferguson took nothing to $10,000, there's an article about it on FullTilt.
Source(s):
I started with nothing on PS and have built it to about $150.