There some analysts out there, I don't know if you've seen them, but they are harsh, scaremongering doomsaysers about how Wii U is going to sink like the Bismarck and Nintendo is going to go the way of Sega etc.
Whilst I believe that their 'analysis' is harsh and that their opinion holds the weight of the average internet forumer - some of what they say I can sort of agree with.
I believe that Nintendo is going to have it much tougher this round of consoles than it had with Wii. For a start, motion gaming was a much more appealing concept for everyone to grasp hold of and it was much easier to understand. What Nintendo showed with Wii U was a combination of functions that left most people watching the presentation thinking: wha? whoa? who? what now? Oh.
Now Wii U is going to be much more expensive tech than Wii was, the controller has to cost a bomb with all the functions and then it's going for wireless image streaming and a console that is, by reports ranges from either 40% more powerful than PS3, to 5 X the power of the 360. A higher price point is a crushing factor when it comes to selling a product and Nintendo is going to have to drive sales whilst looking over their shoulder to see what the other guys are coming out with.
They also shot their load early. With Wii, DS and 3DS their in built hardware USPs were revealed fairly late in the game, too late to easily copy by the other companies. You can see with Move and Kinect how the other platform holders are willing and able to mimick the features of another console to their own advantage. Wii U showed off their tablet design at E3 2011 and less than a year later we hear that Microsoft's Nextbox is in tablet form too with a wireless base station. The naive among you may try to disassociate one piece of news with the other - the more cynical wont. Regardless of whether the competing machines have a tablet form or not, you can bet that when the research guys who are making those machines saw Wii U's tablet, a lightbulb went off in their heads with ideas about what they could do with that kind of tech too. Especially if they were struggling with what 'new' features they could incorporate into the next gen so it wasn't just more of the same.
Then there is the specs gap, if there is one.
IGN is reporting that Nextbox will only be more 20% powerful than Wii U and the Sony machine has to be in the same ballpark unless they want to nuke themselves with a super high spec machine. But rumours are that Wii Us memory is going to be 2GB or less and the Frostbite engine guys recentely said that 2gb wasn't enough, 4 gb would work and 8gb would be ideal.
Will Wii U be able to use the engines of the next generation to the full or will there be a noticible gap? No one knows at this point. Mark Rein said that if a machine couldn't handle UE4 they could do Samaritan with UE3 and just use the new effects to whiz it up to Samaritan level. But then recentely Rein said that UE4 made Samaritan look like crap.
Software wise, some good support has been announced and just because it has good hardware specs, it is getting games like Assasin's Creed 3, Ninja Gaiden 3 and the newest Battlefield game. It's easy to port from 360, but will it be easy to port the games from MS and Sony's newest machines?
Ultimately balance is what is needed, whenever you see predictions about how a console will fare, it comes down to balance. Launching with what we would assume as a 1 year headstart, first year sales might not be great, the price will be high and the software and killer app might be elusive. But assuming it does have that years headstart it might afford them the prospect of dropping the price before or at the launch of the competitions machines and by then, having a few killer titles that would make the gaming audience cave and get one.
Like the 3DS, the games have to be there and the price has to be there. Then its a question of having sustained software support. Will 3rd party sales continue to drag? How will Nintendo adapt to the next gen, will they be able to scale up and manage vastly more expensive and potentially time consuming projects?
At the moment, Wii U looks solid as hardware, but its success or failure is looking more uncertain. My prediction is that the real sales will take off once the machine reaches the right price with the right software, 1st year, not great IMO.
I believe console wise, even if the new Nintendo is on par with the others, the cool kids will still buy into MS and Sony's bullshit. I also believe I will be doing most of my gaming on the PC anyway, so the new Nintendo with all Nintendo's exclusives sounds like the most appealing console to me. Lastly, vagina is tasty.
As much as I love Nintendo, they need to stop with all the quirky gimmicky shit and fire most of their "more of the same" team and bring in some fresh new inventors to churn out the next innovative console, like the ones they were known for in the past... NES, SNES, and N64, even Gamecube to some extent, as well as the game titles that made those systems what they were.
It already has with me.
This.
You guys don't think this new system can do that?
Time will tell, I guess. Personally, I don't like the Wii U controller much. It seems even more gimmicky than the Wii Remote, and it'll cost a hell of a lot more too. Meh.
6 years of Wii... what good games have we got really... a new 2D Mario game, a couple 3D mario games, a new Donkey Kong, a new Zelda, a new Mario Kart, a new Smash Bros, a new Metroid, that's about it (is there a new Resident Evil? not sure.) Throw in a few really good 3rd party games and that's about it, I just feel like they will need to do a lot better than that to stay competitive next generation.
It amazes me how people fail to see facts and get caught up whatever the hell the gaming media decides to report. Is Nintendo is trouble? Not really. They've already picked a direction for the future, and they're in fact going towards it right now. Look at what they're doing this very second. The 3DS has done almost nothing other than cater to a more gamer focused audience instead of a lot of the kid games and casual play like the DS did for much of its existance. Look at what they're doing with Kid Icarus. That game is hardcore as hell, and it's getting a massive push. Look at whats on the 3DS eShop - Sakura Samarai, Dillon's Rolling Western, Mutant Mudds. The Wii's last days will be featuring JRPGs as opposed to more Wii Sports titles. And as far the Wii U goes, it'll have the biggest launch game ever in Japan - Dragon Quest X. That'll set the tone for system and ensure it'll sell quite nicely for a while. America is still a little cloudier of a future, but if they show off a cool way for the new controller to be used, they'll be able to generate enough curiosity.
Plus they're not going to abandon any of the Wii/Wuhu Island games or the audience that likes those games. I just think they'll play a smaller role, and won't be the main focus of the console like when they got carried away with them around 2008 and 2009. As far as the system's price, I think that if Nintendo starts seeing the 3DS gamble pay off they may also try selling the Wii U at a loss, and keep the cost reasonable at a sub $300 price, not much higher than what the Wii was and that'll ensure that the Wuhu audience sticks around. I don't see how they'll be anything but fine for the long-term even if some of the classic franchises have lost some of their luster.
I still think the only company that truly has to worry about next gen is Sony. They are without an identity right now. They still have Japan as a cornerstone, but in Europe and NA the PS3 is the second best console for hardcore gamers. The Vita is off to a shaky as hell start. They couldn't draw in any of the casual audience with the Move. None of their new moves paid off this generation, and it may be too late for them to go back to their old brand. But don't expect to see that article written by anyone until Sony's next gen launch is closer.
^ I'm not worried about any of them, really. They'll all make ridiculous amounts of money next gen, and still complain that they didn't make even more.